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Seismology of Earthquake and Volcano Prediction   This is the lecture note of Keiiti Aki to be presented at the Seventh International Workshop on Non-Linear Dynamics and Earthquake Prediction. The title of the talk is “Seismology of Earthquake and Volcano Prediction”, and it is given in a series of lectures in September-October, 2003.
Since the idea presented in the talk is new and rapidly evolving, it is given in an unusual style. The first part consists of personal communications describing the latest results, the second part is a summary of a paper presented at the IUGG meeting at Sapporo, Japan in June-July, 2003, and the last part describes in detail how the idea was originated using an unpublished book, written in mid-2002, titled “An Introduction to Seismology for Earthquake Prediction”.

Part 1 Personal Communications
1.Memo to V.I.Keilis-Borok from Kei Aki dated May 15, 2003
2.Memo to V.I.Keilis-Borok, copy to Anshu Jin, From Kei Aki, dated 23 May, 2003
3.Memo to Anshu Jin, copy to V.I. Keilis-Borok from Kei Aki dated 26 May, 2003
4.Memo from Anshu Jin to Kei Aki dated 26 May, 2003
Part 2 A New view of earthquake and volcano precursors
1.Introduction and summary
2.Quantitative prediction of eruptions at Piton de la Fournaise
3.Earthquake loading by plate-driving forces
4.Comparison with the loading by fault slip in an earthquake
5.The brittle-ductile transition: Origin of Mc
6.Discussions
7.Appendix. The eruption history of the Piton de la Fournaise since 1972
Part 3 An Introduction to Seismology for Earthquake Prediction
1.Introduction
2.Seismogenic structures and the brittle-ductile transition complex
3.Lessons learned from an active volcano for prediction science
4.Application of lessons learned from Piton de la Fournaise to earthquakes

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